Like most people, I was shocked when Donald Trump managed to defeated Hillary Clinton for the presidency, despite losing the popular vote by a substantial margin. Democrats and liberals are still in the anger phase, as many are pointing fingers trying to make sense of this debacle.
But now we face the prospect of Trump running the country. While Wall Street is giddy for the moment as they fantasize about Trump implementing the Ryan agenda with tax cuts and deregulation, many realize that Trump’s erratic management style and willingness to flip positions on a whim will likely create tremendous uncertainty.
If we’re honest with ourselves, we have to acknowledge that predicting what Trump will do with respect to any particular issue or crisis will be extremely difficult. My take on the prospects for the Trump presidency is pretty simple – expect chaos.
Trump has few if any real convictions – he burps out policy positions without serious preparation or regard for what he’s said in the past. He’s much more interested in loyalty and who is being “nice” to him versus strategic thinking. He loves to play upon resentment and fear, and his driving motivations seem to be his ego, brand and business interests.
Frankly, we don’t have a strategic thinker who puts the interests of the country over his own. We have the opposite. It’s easy to imagine countless scenarios where Trump’s erratic behavior coupled with his consistent lack of preparation will exacerbate the challenge or crisis at hand.
The coverage of this election has been embarrassing for so many reasons. The latest has cable news desperately trying to make this a horse race as they hype up any poll that shows Donald Trump “gaining” on Hillary Clinton. The ABC News tracking poll is big news when Trump’s numbers go up, and then mostly ignored when the same poll shows a reversal. Yet experts know these swings in a tracking poll really have nothing to do with the real state of the race, instead just reflecting “response bias” based on how voters react to pollsters with good or bad news.
Also, based on early voting news, the polls may be missing a Latino wave in this election. Hispanics are coming out in big numbers, and we all know they will mostly be voting for Hillary over Trump. The Clinton campaign knows this:
Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there.
If you get all your election coverage from shows like Morning Joe that love to hype up the horse race , then you’re not getting the full picture. Listen to pros like Steve Schmidt, John Ralston, the Cook Report or Larry Sabato. If you’re still in the right wing bubble, ask President Romney how much their coverage is rooted in reality.
Missouri offers an interesting opportunity for Democrats to pick up another Senate seat. Incumbent Republican Roy Blunt was a clear favorite, but you can see from this ad that Jason Kandor is a formidable candidate.
Blunt has been attacking Kandor on the gun issue, so Kander, a former Army Captain who volunteered to serve in Afghanistan, went right after Blunt on this issue.
This is the kind of things more candidates need to do. Appeal directly to voters in their ads, and take on issues raised in the campaign. Having a clever angle like assembling a gun while blindfolded also helps!
Donald Trump is an easy target, but in her latest speech, Hillary Clinton explains the threat of Donald Trump to the country in devastating fashion. The speech was perfectly written, and she delivered it beautifully.
This speech may result in a turning point in this campaign, as it comes at a time when Trump seems to be even more unhinged with his attacks on a judge for his Mexican heritage and the press focusing on his Trump University fraud.
Also, the press finally seems willing to take on Trump, and this speech gives the press great soundbites to highlight Trump’s buffoonery.