Hispanic turnout will be story of Clinton victory


The coverage of this election has been embarrassing for so many reasons. The latest has cable news desperately trying to make this a horse race as they hype up any poll that shows Donald Trump “gaining” on Hillary Clinton. The ABC News tracking poll is big news when Trump’s numbers go up, and then mostly ignored when the same poll shows a reversal. Yet experts know these swings in a tracking poll really have nothing to do with the real state of the race, instead just reflecting “response bias” based on how voters react to pollsters with good or bad news.

Also, based on early voting news, the polls may be missing a Latino wave in this election. Hispanics are coming out in big numbers, and we all know they will mostly be voting for Hillary over Trump. The Clinton campaign knows this:

Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there.

If you get all your election coverage from shows like Morning Joe that love to hype up the horse race , then you’re not getting the full picture. Listen to pros like Steve Schmidt, John Ralston, the Cook Report or Larry Sabato. If you’re still in the right wing bubble, ask President Romney how much their coverage is rooted in reality.


Clinton destroys Trump in epic speech

Donald Trump is an easy target, but in her latest speech, Hillary Clinton explains the threat of Donald Trump to the country in devastating fashion. The speech was perfectly written, and she delivered it beautifully.

CNN compiled the best lines from the speech here.

This speech may result in a turning point in this campaign, as it comes at a time when Trump seems to be even more unhinged with his attacks on a judge for his Mexican heritage and the press focusing on his Trump University fraud.

Also, the press finally seems willing to take on Trump, and this speech gives the press great soundbites to highlight Trump’s buffoonery.


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?


News outlets are reporting that Hillary Clinton is under consideration for Secretary of State. I guess Obama wasn’t kidding when he said he was considering the Lincoln model of a team of rivals.

There’s increasing chatter in political circles that the Obama camp is not overly happy with the usual suspects for secretary of state these days and that the field might be expanding somewhat beyond Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and maybe former Democratic senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.

There’s talk, indeed, that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) may now be under consideration for the post. Her office referred any questions to the Obama transition; Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor declined to comment.

I’m a little puzzled by this one. I think she would be much better suited for a career in the Senate where she could work on issues like health care. She’s certainly up to the job, and she would have Bill Clinton as a resource, but it seems like there are many other options. On the other hand, it shows that he’s willing to bring in some of the best people in the party, and that he’s not afraid to have big personalities in his administration.


Bill Clinton campaigns for Barack Obama in Florida

Barack Obama has been surging in the polls, and now the Obama campaign is bringing out the big guns.

Bill Clinton campaigned today for Obama in Florida. John McCain’s lead has evaporated in Florida and Ohio, and some polls show Obama with a lead in those states. Clinton can be a huge help getting independents and Democrats to fall in line for Obama, particularly in the current economic environment.

Up to now Clinton has been a liability. He’s terrible in interviews as he can’t hide his disapointment that Obama beat Hillary for the nomination. But on the stump he’s a huge asset. He knows how to give a speech, and he knows how to frame an argument that will persuade voters. If he keeps this up and Hillary continues to hit the campaign trail, Obama should be able to close the deal.


Hillary’s push for Obama in Ohio

Barack Obama has been rebounding in the polls, but he still has a tough road ahead of him in Ohio. Fortunately, Hillary is ready to help out in the Buckeye State.

Hillary just held a private conference call with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and dozens of donors to her campaign and to Ohio Dems, urging them to plow funds into the coffers of the Ohio state party so it can help execute the ground game on Barack Obama’s behalf, a Hillary aide confirms to me.

“There isn’t any doubt that Ohio once again will be the pivotal state in this election and I know that it’s extremely close in the state,” Hillary told the donors, according to excerpts of the call sent our way by her office.

Hillary also promised extensive future visits to the state on Obama’s behalf. “I will be back campaigning up and down the state to make the case that the failed leadership of the last eight years should not be rewarded with another four,” she told the donors.

Obama’s team has been working closely with Hillary and Governor Strickland. They have an excellent ground game and lots of new voters. It will be interesting to see if that puts Obama over the top. I still think he has better opportunities in Virginia and Colorado, but he can probably lock up the election with wins in either Ohio or Florida.


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