Hispanic turnout will be story of Clinton victory


The coverage of this election has been embarrassing for so many reasons. The latest has cable news desperately trying to make this a horse race as they hype up any poll that shows Donald Trump “gaining” on Hillary Clinton. The ABC News tracking poll is big news when Trump’s numbers go up, and then mostly ignored when the same poll shows a reversal. Yet experts know these swings in a tracking poll really have nothing to do with the real state of the race, instead just reflecting “response bias” based on how voters react to pollsters with good or bad news.

Also, based on early voting news, the polls may be missing a Latino wave in this election. Hispanics are coming out in big numbers, and we all know they will mostly be voting for Hillary over Trump. The Clinton campaign knows this:

Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there.

If you get all your election coverage from shows like Morning Joe that love to hype up the horse race , then you’re not getting the full picture. Listen to pros like Steve Schmidt, John Ralston, the Cook Report or Larry Sabato. If you’re still in the right wing bubble, ask President Romney how much their coverage is rooted in reality.


The Hispanic vote

Barack Obama beat John McCain among Hispanics by more than a 2-1 margin. This fact helps explain why Obama was able to thump McCain in New Mexico and Nevada by double digits and handily win Colorado as well.

This shouldn’t be a surprise. Watching the Republican convention, I was struck by the crowds at the convention. The words “melting pot” did not come to mind. This continued at campaign events in states like Colorado.

Republicans in Colorado pointed to other GOP mistakes.

“I have gone to a few Republican campaign events, and you don’t see a brown face or a black face in the crowd,” said former U.S. Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a Republican who retired in 2004.

“The Republican Party, they are not inclusive,” Campbell said.

He would not say which candidate campaigns he attended, but offered, “the last couple of statewide races.”

During the primaries, the pundits said Latinos would not support a black candidate. After the conventions, many of them stopped talking about the Hispanic vote. It turns out this was one of the most under-reported stories of this campaign.

The Republicans are in trouble if this trend continues.


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