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Author: Gerardo Orlando (Page 62 of 169)

The Hispanic vote

Barack Obama beat John McCain among Hispanics by more than a 2-1 margin. This fact helps explain why Obama was able to thump McCain in New Mexico and Nevada by double digits and handily win Colorado as well.

This shouldn’t be a surprise. Watching the Republican convention, I was struck by the crowds at the convention. The words “melting pot” did not come to mind. This continued at campaign events in states like Colorado.

Republicans in Colorado pointed to other GOP mistakes.

“I have gone to a few Republican campaign events, and you don’t see a brown face or a black face in the crowd,” said former U.S. Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a Republican who retired in 2004.

“The Republican Party, they are not inclusive,” Campbell said.

He would not say which candidate campaigns he attended, but offered, “the last couple of statewide races.”

During the primaries, the pundits said Latinos would not support a black candidate. After the conventions, many of them stopped talking about the Hispanic vote. It turns out this was one of the most under-reported stories of this campaign.

The Republicans are in trouble if this trend continues.

So much for the Bradley Effect

For the most part, the pollsters did a very good job in this election. Barack Obama appears to have won the popular vote by six points, which pretty much matches the polling averages. Rasmussen got the percentages exactly right, and Nate Silver’s projection was also accurate. Even the polls that were off a little were very close on Obama’s totals.

This should not be a surprise. With few exceptions (like New Hampshire), the polls were pretty accurate during the primaries. The pundits needed to fill air time, so many of them had to speculate about the Bradley Effect, but we now see that it no longer applies.

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