It’s embarassing to have people defend a politician who keeps lying about her record and refuses to give interviews. On the Sarah Palin campaign plane, reporters are instructed that all conversations are off the record. Here’s a video of her ridiculous claims about earmark reform in Alaska. It’s easy to be popular when your state gets more federal pork dollars on a per-capita basis than any other state.
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It turns out she was warned by a judge back in 2005 to lay off her brother-in-law. The judge called her actions “emotional child abuse.”
Given these new facts, are we really expected to believe that she didn’t try to get him fired once she became governor?
There are so many more important issues facing Palin, like her inability to answer a single question from the press about the issues facing this country. But this is starting to sound like a bad soap opera. It’s not surprising that the McCain campaign is trying to derail the investigation.
That’s the only thing that can explain this.
All of the national polls are generally tied. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows a one-point lead for Obama, while most others have it tied or McCain up one or two points.
The only outlier seems to be Gallup, which always fluctuates the most. This article explains how the recent Gallup polls have a greater Republican weight than previous Gallup polls, which likely accounts for the lead expressed in those polls.
The question is whether the weighting needs to be changed. Republicans are now more energized, but it’s hard to imagine that party identification trends changed overnight. Also, the new registration numbers over the past four years have strongly tilted towards the Democrats.
It will be interesting to see which are correct. The state polls in the battleground states seem to be stable in the tossup category, reflecting the polls that have it as a dead heat.
Can the Republicans keep this up, or has the support for Palin peaked? The next several weeks will be interesting, and then we have the debates.
By picking Sarah Palin, John McCain probably has put the South back in the safe-GOP column. The latest poll in North Carolina has him up 20 points now, and the surge in the South is probably helping his national numbers.
Also, McCain now has a 10-point lead in Montana, so other typically red states are probably safer bets for McCain. That said, Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana, so that could change the equation.
Meanwhile, the polls in the battleground states are still very tight. Obama is holding up well in states like Virginia, Florida and Colorado.
As a result, we can probably expect the Obama campaign to pare down the number of contested states. Right now, they’re going after 18 states. They probably need to decide quickly and move resources out of Georgia and Alaska. We need to see more polls, but North Carolina, Montana and North Dakota might be casualties as well.
This still leaves many paths to 270 for Obama. Assuming he gets Iowa where he has a big lead, either Virginia or Colorado can put him over the top, without Ohio and Florida. Of course, he has to hang on in Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Even then, he has states like New Mexico and Nevada that are winnable.
We’ll have to watch the state polls to see if the Obama camp makes some adjustments.
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