All of the national polls are generally tied. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows a one-point lead for Obama, while most others have it tied or McCain up one or two points.
The only outlier seems to be Gallup, which always fluctuates the most. This article explains how the recent Gallup polls have a greater Republican weight than previous Gallup polls, which likely accounts for the lead expressed in those polls.
The question is whether the weighting needs to be changed. Republicans are now more energized, but it’s hard to imagine that party identification trends changed overnight. Also, the new registration numbers over the past four years have strongly tilted towards the Democrats.
It will be interesting to see which are correct. The state polls in the battleground states seem to be stable in the tossup category, reflecting the polls that have it as a dead heat.
Can the Republicans keep this up, or has the support for Palin peaked? The next several weeks will be interesting, and then we have the debates.
