By picking Sarah Palin, John McCain probably has put the South back in the safe-GOP column. The latest poll in North Carolina has him up 20 points now, and the surge in the South is probably helping his national numbers.
Also, McCain now has a 10-point lead in Montana, so other typically red states are probably safer bets for McCain. That said, Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana, so that could change the equation.
Meanwhile, the polls in the battleground states are still very tight. Obama is holding up well in states like Virginia, Florida and Colorado.
As a result, we can probably expect the Obama campaign to pare down the number of contested states. Right now, they’re going after 18 states. They probably need to decide quickly and move resources out of Georgia and Alaska. We need to see more polls, but North Carolina, Montana and North Dakota might be casualties as well.
This still leaves many paths to 270 for Obama. Assuming he gets Iowa where he has a big lead, either Virginia or Colorado can put him over the top, without Ohio and Florida. Of course, he has to hang on in Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Even then, he has states like New Mexico and Nevada that are winnable.
We’ll have to watch the state polls to see if the Obama camp makes some adjustments.
