Given the polls over the past couple of days, I’m stunned and very disappointed by this result in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
Andrew Sullivan’s initial reaction sums up well the possible reasons for Hillary’s narrow victory:
Here are my thoughts: the media piled on too much at the end and there was a voter backlash; independents may have assumed an Obama victory and went for McCain instead; the Democratic base responded to the Clinton appeal, especially women and urban voters; the youth vote didn’t quite turn out as well as it should have; Clinton for the first time looked vulnerable and even human in the final days – and that helped; her final debate performance was also excellent.
The McCain effect might have been huge.
Now we have a race. As Sullivan explains in another post, this might be better for all of us. The idea of an Obama coronation after two states didn’t sit well with many voters, and now we’ll see how he reacts to adversity. He will be vetted even more, and this will make him stronger in the general if he’s able to win the nomination.
It will be interesting to see how this affects the national polls. Obama had effectively drawn even with Clinton in several national polls. This might help Hillary take back a lead.
On to Nevada!
