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Obama within 6 points of McCain in . . . Kansas!

This fact alone explains why Obama would be the best candidate for the Democrats in the fall. He is within striking distance of McCain in Kansas, a state that has been solid GOP territory for years but has started to grow tired of the far right. Of course, McCain has a huge lead over Hillary.

Clinton supporters brag of her wins against Obama in big states lke New York (her own state) and California, but either Democrat would win those states. The key is winning the swing states and being competitive in some red states. Obama can do that.

On the other hand, Hillary will unite a Republican Party that is hopelessly divided. McCain can’t do it, but she can. Nominating her would be a disaster.

Ohio and Texas

It’s difficult to predict what will happen tomorrow. Over the past 10 contests, Obama has outperformed the polls with his superior ground game and the enthusiasm of his supporters. Hopefully that will continue tomorrow and he can put this away, but his ground game advantage might not be as significant tomorrow as the Clinton campaign has bet everything on these two states.

Obama’s rise in the polls seems to have stalled a little, and some polls have Hillary increasing her lead in Ohio. Some are blaming the national security ads from Clinton, but I suspect that the photo from last week of Obama in traditional African clothes might be having a larger impact.

Texas is critical. Obama needs to win the delegate race AND the popular vote to prevent any claims of victory by the Clinton campaign. If he can win in Texas and keep it close in Ohio, the super delegates will start to break for Obama and many will call for her to get out of the race. It’s also possible that party heavyweights like Gore, Pelosi, Richardson and Edwards will come out for Obama.

Should be interesting.

McCain and Iraq

He just doesn’t get it.

“And my friends, if we left, they (al-Qaida) wouldn’t be establishing a base,” McCain said Wednesday. “They’d be taking a country, and I’m not going to allow that to happen, my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to al-Qaida.”

They’d be taking a country? Last time I checked, Iraq has a Shi’ite majority. McCain thinks the Shi’ites–the Mahdi Army, the Badr Corps (and yes, the Iranians)–would allow a small group of Sunni extremists to take over? In fact, as noted above, the vast majority of indigenous Iraqi Sunnis aren’t too thrilled about the AQI presence in their country, either. (The usual caveats apply: AQI is barbaric, dastardly and intent on violating the Qu’ran by engaging in the annihilation of innocents. We can’t get rid of them fast enough.)

Joe Klein deserves credit for addressing this point, and hopefully the Obama campaign is paying attention. Bush and McCain have been justifying the continued presence in Iraq by playing the Al Qaida card, but Klein points out the obvious. They will never “take over” Iraq.

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