This is a very logical and practical approach.
Tag: Barack Obama (Page 18 of 24)
Several weeks ago, Newsweek had Obama up by 15 points. Compared to other polls, it seemed way off based. As expected, the next Newsweek poll shows a much tighter race at 3 points, which is more consistent with other national polls. Of couse, Newsweek wonders what happened over the last several weeks. This fits into their narrative that Obama’s appeal might be fading.
They might want to take a look at the methodology of their poll. The weighting between Democrats and Republicans over the two polls were very different, along with weighting for other democgraphic factors. Naturally, if you include more Republicans in the second poll, you will show a much different margin.
This is a tough year to conduct polls, as the breakdown between Democrats and Republicans is very hard to predict. That breakdown has a huge impact on polling results.
What’s strange is that Newsweek would release polls with very different weightings and then draw conclusions from the poll that don’t take these weightings into account. This is another example where blogs do a much better job of reporting facts than the mainstream media.
This is a great move, and as Jacob Heilbrunn explains, it’s a blow to McCain. Hagel is a veteran as well and aa Republican Senator who opposes the Bush administration policy in Iraq.
I’m curious to see who else joins Obama as it might signal potential VP picks. Biden seems like an obvious choice for the trip regardless of whether Obama is seriously considering him for the trip, but if Evan Bayh joins them, it increases the odds that he’s the pick.
Evan Byah would be an excellent choice for Obama’s running mate.
The fact that the Obama campaign is willing to target Indiana tells me that Bayh might be the choice. The 11 electoral votes from Indiana would tip the election to Obama, if he won all the Kerry states and Iowa (where he has a solid lead). He wouldn’t even need Ohio or Florida. Having Bayh on the ticket could deliver the state. His midwestern roots would also help Obama in battleground states like Ohio and Wisconsin.
More importantly, Bayh bolsters the ticket in general terms. First, he’s clearly capable of being President on day one. He’s a former governor and a Senator. He also has significant foreign policy credentials, with his seats on the Armed Services and Intelligence committees. He’s a moderate with excellent credentials on taxes and economic policy. Finally, he looks like a President. He’s soft-spoken and boring at times, but he projects an image of quiet competence, which is a good balance to Obama’s electric campaign. He would help quiet the fears of those who worry Obama lacks experience. He’s not an old hand like Sam Nunn, but he’s still a heavyweight.
Obama needs a VP that reassures voters and doesn’t make mistakes. Bayh is a pro, and he did a good job as a surrogate for Hillary Clinton in the primaries.
Bayh’s credentials, along with the help he provides with the electoral map, make him the best choice in my opinion.
The McCain campaign continues to make blunders. McCain’s recent proposal to offer a $300 million prize for new battery technology is another gem from this inept campaign. Obama hits the softball out of the park.
“When John F. Kennedy decided that we were going to put a man on the moon, he didn’t put a bounty out for some rocket scientist to win — he put the full resources of the United States government behind the project and called on the ingenuity and innovation of the American people — not just in the private sector but also in the public sector.”
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